My analysis in DailyO ahead of the Assam assembly elections.
You can read a version of the article below:
Nearly 85 per cent of the population in Assam lives in rural
areas where Satras (temples) and lands are an integral part of life and culture
of the people. For a common Assamese his/her culture and identity is a defining
factor.
At the national level, this land of red rivers and blue
hills is crucial from strategic and trade aspects. A few days ahead of the
second phase of polls here, the key question is: Why should Assamese people
vote for change this time?
Today Assam is caught in a precarious situation because of
the illegal migration from Bangladesh. In the last two to three decades, lakhs
of illegal migrants from across the border have settled in different parts of
the state.
The resultant pressure on resources and struggle for
survival has lead to frequent clashes and unrest in the Assamese society.
The indigenous population no longer feels safe in its own
homeland. The migrant population has either captured or bought lands of Satra
(temple) and forest in last 20 years. With Satras and lands coming under this
shadow, the Assamiya Asmita (pride) is also no longer safe.
The issue of illegal migrants from Bangladesh is not just
endemic to the state of Assam. In fact these illegal migrants are now
travelling to different parts of the country and settling down there, making it
an issue of national security.
What was considered one of the most complicated border
disputes in the world was resolved by the central government led by Narendra
Modi through the exchange of hundreds of enclaves with Bangladesh. The border
which had become extremely porous due to nationality and ownership issues was
at last given a shape.
Now, as a second step the central government has promised
adequate fencing and other security measures which will stop cross-border
infiltration.
While BJP leaders have been categorically saying that the
formation of the party’s government in Assam will mean reclaiming lands of
Satra (temple) and forest, the Congress party has maintained a studied silence.
Senior Congress leadership has never duly recognised the problem of illegal
Bangladeshi migrants in Assam.
In the neighbouring West Bengal, chief minister Mamta
Banerjee had said that no one could touch the Bangladeshi migrants and they are
a part of her state now.
This is the core issue that has compelled the Assamese
people to vote for change in these elections. With more than 40 seats being
heavily dominated by illegal Bangladeshi migrants, this could be the last
battle to save Assam. If even half of this slogan stands true, then people of
Assam should vote for change this time.
Demography of Assam has changed beyond recognition in the
last 15 years when Congress was in power. However, far from finding a solution
to the problem, the party and its senior leaders do not even recognise it.
Their policy so far has been to stay blind to the effects of migration. Even
the Congress manifesto says little on the issue.
Now, illegal Bangladeshi migrants have their own political
party in Assam. AIUDF, led by Badruddin Ajmal, stands for the interests of
illegal Bangladeshis. The word on the street is that while the Congress does
not have a formal alliance with the AIUDF but it has reached a tacit
understanding with Badruddin Ajmal.
LK Advani was the first home minister of India who raised
the issue of deportation of illegal Bangladeshi migrants from India. This move
was vociferously criticised by the opposition parties. Apart from the BJP, no
other party has raised the issue of Bangladeshi immigrants with grit and
conviction.
The current chief minister Tarun Gogoi claims that there has
been enormous "growth" in the last 15 years.
Recently, Sanjoy Hazarika, one of the leading intellectuals
of Assam wrote that in several parts of the state, health and education
parameters are poor and it has India’s worst MMR figures (Material Mortality
Ratio - the number of women dying in pregnancy is 300 per 10000 deliveries).
The state also has the second worst Infant Mortality Ratio
(IMR).
Peace and development in Assam will also help in the
"Act East" policy of the central government. This will open new doors
for trade and cultural exchange with Southeast Asian countries which have long
cultural ties with India. This new route to Southeast Asia will also open new
avenues of job and business for the people of Assam.
In this election, BJP has floated a mahagadhbandhan (grand
alliance) in Assam which also reflects a grand social coalition of all
indigenous communities. With such an alliance coming to power in the state, the
present sense of fear and distrust will be mitigated.
This Assembly election will see a vote for change because
for Assam it has come to signify peace, prosperity and security.
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